基本面分析

2020年投資股票基本面分析重點

為何要做股票基本面分析?

基本面分析就是了解一家公司的財務狀況和公司盈虧狀況,還有產業市場變動、經濟景氣、內部營運等因素都是在基本分析內容裡面,雖然有些東西有記載在財報數據,可是有些則沒有。

基本面通常會以三個方向作分析

  1. 經濟因素 : 

包含國內和國外的經濟指標,像是GDP成長率、通貨膨脹、利率、匯率、生產率、失業率等考量因素。在經濟狀況良好的情況下公司經營狀況好,營利有所成長的情況下股價自然會上漲,經濟不景氣時公司盈運狀況差,利潤下降股價自會下跌,可是股市市場和經濟週期時間上不一定完全一致,還是要依照當前公司是否有被環境因素影響,或經濟波動所影響。

  1. 產業因素 : 

包括整體產業的銷售量,同業同性質競爭、產業價格變動、而最終都指向產業供需狀況。

  1. 公司個別分析:

包括公司產品銷售量、是否有發售新產品、公司有無獲利,所有公司內部財務運作都是在此類。

基本面分析

基本面好用的本益比法

要找出公司的真實價值,也就是買到比較合理的股價,可以使用本益比法,這是為了比免買到太昂貴的價格,或是遇到炒作股票坑殺投資人的其中一個方法。

本益比=股價/每股盈餘(EPS)

下面有柴鼠兄弟對本益比的用法和講解


技巧提示

營收好的股票,想對也會有比較多上漲機會。

本益比在中低價位進場比較不會買貴。

營業現金活動流量(CFO)要上升。

營業現金活動流量(CFO)是企業投資項目主要的現金流,如果一家企業沒有營業先金流量,企業現金流遲早會衰敗,而營業現金活動流量正是體現企業經營和未來發展前景。

計算公式如下:

營業淨現金流量(CFO)=每年營業收入-付現成本-所得稅,或是營業淨現金流量(CFO)=淨利+折舊。

  1. 自由現金流量(CFC)要為正 。

如果一家公司長期虧損,就不是一個好的投資目標。

統整一下基本面分析核心概念和優缺點

基本面分析主要研究公司的價值,包括公司產業、競爭力、總經,並且評估公司經營能力和風險,還有了解公司的獲利能力、成長性,公司的內含價值與股價的差距就能知道要投資的標的企業價格是否在合理範圍。

  • 基本面分析優點:

背後有資訊邏輯依據在支撐,讓投資人比較有信心購買合理價格。

  • 基本面分析缺點:
  1. 即時性非常低,因為財報數據一季公布一次,一個月公布一次營收。
  2. 財報可能造假。
  3. 企業價值不一定反應在股票上,因為股價還包含許多需要分析的成分。
  4. 對於想要買到合理價格有所堅持,可能伴隨買不到合理價格的風險。    

使用基本面所衍生出的兩種投資方法

  1. 價值型投資法:強調股票的真實價值,選擇財務穩健的公司,需要耐心抱股,逢低買進直到利空遠去,股價回到甚至超過內在價值以上,此時便是分批賣出時機。

要注意停損時機剛開始把壞公司看成好公司,還有公司基本面由好轉壞,也需要作停損。

  1. 成長型投資法:看中股票的成長能力,選擇成長能力強的公司,分析公司成長的力道,了解該公司後期有何成長內在價值,並評估如果成長趨緩就出場。

停損時機為個股沒有如期成長便需要考慮停損或立刻賣出。


兩種基本面的投資方法應該擇其一,因為套操作策略有一定的操作邏輯,不要用A邏輯買股票,然後用B邏輯出場,而兩種投資策略要挑選適合自己的方法,

而上述是基本面的操作方法選對方法才能有效獲利。

以下有更完整的基本面投資方法講解

你是價值型or成長型投資人?
http://programmer101.org/learn/course/0520/topic/1324

也能透過小資女艾蜜莉:我的資產翻倍存股筆記學習如何投資股票穩穩賺

“2020年投資股票基本面分析重點” 有 15 則留言.

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